No, we are not preparing for a snow storm, but for Brexit. The UK will sever ties with Europe in, what appears to be, a way that leaves no room for trade deals to be made before January 1st, 2021. What does this mean? Well we are starting to find out, as the COVID virus is giving those of us in the UK over Christmas, a sort of a trial run.
The present government had leaned towards continuing with the opening of businesses, and allowing people to travel for the holidays. Then, in an about turn, Boris Johnson announced a partial closing of all businesses in the southeast and London, and a ban on travel out of the area, for two weeks beginning midnight Saturday, December 19th. Jon and I arrived in London to the news, and we were one of the few who didn't immediately rush out shopping or to train stations and airports.
Christmas had been cancelled. No one was to be traveling to be with loved ones, stores would close, and all gatherings should be avoided. The ripple affect was that 40 countries immediately put into place a travel ban for passengers leaving the UK. That meant that airports and airlines were scrambling to refund, rearrange and answer questions about the millions of travel arrangements made by every passenger hoping to get home for Christmas. We found you could fly into the UK, but then your were marooned, unable to leave. So that affected flights into the country as well. A friend flew Monday through the UK in transit to Ireland. The flight to Dublin was canceled and the airline had to reroute her through Belfast. Not only flights were cancelled, but ferries as well, cutting off that route to Ireland or the continent.
France very quickly closed its ports to all trucks trying to cross the channel. That led to long lines of thousands of trucks en route, with nowhere to go. Would that affect the shipping of our favorite holiday treats and produce? Good thing we already bought the turkey! But those trucks were trying to make their last delivery before all trading must stop on January 1st. If a no-deal Brexit comes before the border opens, then those loads will be lost. This led to Scotland's declaring: "The U.K. government has to recognize that we are in the midst of a perfect storm and to risk further disruption and financial damage to businesses in just 10 days’ time is completely unacceptable", and asking for there to be further consideration given to the Brexit deadline. This is already a Brexit that has been delayed since the referendum in 2016, and further delaying the date might be contentious. Can the UK afford to delay even more? Can it afford Brexit at all?
Many are blaming the governments slow actions towards both Brexit talks and COVID guidelines. However, the real catalyst to this perfect storm is a new variant of the virus that is 70% more likely to spread than the original strain. This is what is prompting the economic shut down and transport bans. They are attempting to keep the variant from reaching Europe. "Plague Island" has been used to describe the British Isles. They may be too late. This variant has been detected in other countries: Denmark, South Africa and even Australia.
Could all of this been avoided? Could the Brexit deadline have been set for another date? Probably. Could the country have kept stricter COVID guidelines since the first wave of infections? Certainly. Could the European Union be on better terms with the UK? Hard to say. One quote from the NY Times: “Little England has always wanted to cut off the continent, they’ve finally achieved it.” (Powell). But their timing is way off!
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